Spatial suitability between water supply pressure and waterworks water supply capacity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area: Spatial-temporal evolution pattern, driving mechanism and Implications

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GHMGBA) is one of the four major bay areas in the world. However, the mismatch between water resource distribution and spatial layout of population and productivity poses great challenge to water supply security of the GHMGBA. Evaluating the spatial suitability of water supply pressure (WSP) and waterworks water supply capacity (WSC) is essential to the spatial equilibrium allocation of water resources and water supply security in the GHMGBA. Therefore, the current study first investigated the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of WSP and waterworks WSC using the standard deviational ellipse and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) methods, the spatial suitability of WSP and waterworks WSC was further evaluated using the coupling coordination degree model, and the driving mechanism of such spatial suitability was finally revealed using the dynamic spatial Durbin model. The results show that the WSP respectively forms high and low value aggregations in the eastern and western parts of the Pearl River estuary; the area with high waterworks WSC is mainly located in the northern part, the high-high cluster areas are in the eastern part of Zhaoqing and the western part of Huizhou, and the low-low cluster areas are mainly in Guangzhou-Foshan, Shenzhen-Hong Kong and Zhuhai-Macao. The coupling coordination of WSP and water-works WSC was in an overall imbalance state. The eastern and western parts of the Pearl River estuary are slightly unbalanced or with better level. Demand-driven and economic efficiency have significant effects under spatial and economic proximity weights, government guidance has a significant positive effect, while market orientation has an insignificant positive effect; environmental pollution and resource allocation have a significant negative effect under geographical proximity weight, and environmental pollution has a stronger negative effect on spatial suitability. Finally, policy recommendations were proposed to improve the spatial suitability of WSP and waterworks WSC of the GHMGBA.