Combined Effects of Land Use/Cover Change and Climate Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China

In the context of global warming and intensified human activities, the quantitative assessment of the combined effects of land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change on the hydrological cycle is crucial. This study was based on the simulation results of future climate and LUCC in the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) using the GFDL-ESM2M and CA-Markov combined with the SWAT models to simulate the runoff changes under different scenarios. The results revealed that the future annual precipitation and average temperature in the JRB are on the increase, and the future LUCC changes are mainly reflected in the increase in forest and urban lands and decrease in farmlands. Changes in runoff in the JRB are dominated by precipitation, and the frequency of extreme events increases with the increase in the concentration of CO2 emissions. Under four climate scenarios, the contribution of future climate change to runoff changes in the JRB is -8.06%, -27.30%, -8.12%, and +1.10%, respectively, whereas the influence of future LUCC changes is smaller, ranging from 1.14-1.64%. In response to the future risk of increasing water-resources stress in the JRB, the results of this study can provide a scientific basis for ecological protection and water-resources management and development.