The impact of climate change on wheat in Turkey

Numerous studies have addressed climate change's impact on agriculture, yet the specific effects on wheat production in Turkey remain under-explored. This research aims to bridge this gap by quantifying these impacts in Turkey over 25 years. As the region's principal wheat producer, Turkey offers a unique context, situated in the area where wheat was first domesticated. We analyzed a comprehensive dataset comprising over 20,000 records from 820 political districts, employing a panel data fixed-effect model to mitigate unobserved heterogeneity and reveal dynamic time-related patterns. We focused on critical climate variables: temperature, precipitation, and drought. The results show a significant 9% decrease in wheat yields following a 1.5 degrees C rise in temperature, affecting nearly 1 million hectares. A notable finding is the 'May effect', highlighting how climatic changes in May disproportionately affect wheat yields. This study provides detailed insights into the temporal and geographic aspects of climate change's impact on wheat production, emphasizing the need for targeted policy actions and strategic agricultural planning, particularly in dry areas.