Ensemble Hindcasting of Coastal Wave Heights

被引:1
|
作者
Pais, Namitha Viona [1 ]
Ravishanker, Nalini [1 ]
O'Donnell, James [2 ]
Shaffer, Ellis [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Connecticut, Dept Stat, Storrs, CT 06269 USA
[2] Univ Connecticut, Connecticut Inst Resilience & Climate Adaptat, Dept Marine Sci, Groton, CT 06340 USA
[3] S&P, New York, NY 10010 USA
关键词
extreme value analysis; GARCH; hindcasting; return values; threshold regression; wave heights;
D O I
10.3390/jmse11061110
中图分类号
U6 [水路运输]; P75 [海洋工程];
学科分类号
0814 ; 081505 ; 0824 ; 082401 ;
摘要
Long records of wave parameters are central to the estimation of coastal flooding risk and the causes of coastal erosion. This paper leverages the predictive power of wave height history and correlations with wind speed and direction to build statistical models for time series of wave heights to develop a method to fill data-gaps and extend the record length of coastal wave observations. A threshold regression model is built where the threshold parameter, based on lagged wind speed, explains the nonlinear associations, and the lagged predictors in the model are based on a well-established empirical wind-wave relationship. The predictive model is completed by addressing the residual conditional heteroscedasticity using a GARCH model. This comprehensive model is trained on time series data from 2005 to 2013, using wave height and wind data both observed from a buoy in Long Island Sound. Subsequently, replacing wind data with observations from a nearby coastal station provides a similar level of predictive accuracy. This approach can be used to hindcast wave heights for past decades given only wind information at a coastal station. These hindcasts are used as a representative of the unobserved past to carry out extreme value analysis by fitting Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution in a peaks over threshold (POT) framework. By analyzing longer periods of data, we can obtain reliable return value estimates to help design better coastal protection structures.
引用
收藏
页数:17
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] Wave hindcasting off the coast of Portugal
    Sebastiao, P
    Soares, CG
    Booij, N
    COASTAL ENGINEERING, 2000, 40 (04) : 411 - 425
  • [22] Comparison of Implicit and Explicit Vegetation Representations in SWAN Hindcasting Wave Dissipation by Coastal Wetlands in Chesapeake Bay
    Baron-Hyppolite, Christophe
    Lashley, Christopher H.
    Garzon, Juan
    Miesse, Tyler
    Ferreira, Celso
    Bricker, Jeremy D.
    GEOSCIENCES, 2019, 9 (01)
  • [23] APPLICATION OF SWAN MODEL FOR HINDCASTING WAVE HEIGHT IN JEPARA COASTAL WATERS, NORTH JAVA']JAVA, INDONESIA
    Muliati, Yati
    Tawekal, Ricky Lukman
    Wurjanto, Andojo
    Kelvin, Jaya
    Pranowo, Widodo Setiyo
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOMATE, 2018, 15 (48): : 114 - 120
  • [24] Wave Hindcasting in the Southeastern Coast of Iran
    Kalantari, Homayoun
    Lari, Kamran
    Arasteh, Afshin Mohseni
    Azad, Masoud Torabi
    MARINE TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY JOURNAL, 2022, 56 (01) : 83 - 97
  • [25] Wave Hindcasting and Anchoring Activities in Ancient Harbours: The Impact of Coastal Dynamics on Ancient Carthago Nova (Cartagena, Spain)
    Cerezo-Andreo, Felipe
    Lopez-Castejon, Francisco J.
    Ramallo-Asensio, Sebastian F.
    Gilabert-Cervera, Javier
    JOURNAL OF MARITIME ARCHAEOLOGY, 2020, 15 (02) : 209 - 237
  • [26] The 14th international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the 5th coastal hazards symposium
    Øyvind Breivik
    Jose Henrique Alves
    Diana Greenslade
    Kevin Horsburgh
    Val Swail
    Ocean Dynamics, 2017, 67 : 551 - 556
  • [27] The 14th international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the 5th coastal hazards symposium
    Breivik, Oyvind
    Alves, Jose Henrique
    Greenslade, Diana
    Horsburgh, Kevin
    Swail, Val
    OCEAN DYNAMICS, 2017, 67 (3-4) : 551 - 556
  • [28] Hindcasting and predicting surge heights and waves on the Taiwan coast using a hybrid typhoon wind and tide-surge-wave coupled model
    Liu, Wen-Cheng
    Huang, Wei-Che
    OCEAN ENGINEERING, 2023, 276
  • [29] A 100-member ensemble simulations of global historical (1951–2010) wave heights
    Mercè Casas-Prat
    Xiaolan L. Wang
    Nobuhito Mori
    Yang Feng
    Rodney Chan
    Tomoya Shimura
    Scientific Data, 10
  • [30] Comparison of altimeter derived wave periods and significant wave heights with buoy data in the Portuguese coastal environment
    Sohrabi, M.
    Rusu, L.
    Guedes Soares, C.
    MARITIME TECHNOLOGY AND ENGINEERING, VOLS. 1 & 2, 2015, : 1403 - 1409