Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Layered Slope Considering Soil Spatial Variability Subjected to Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence

The slope instability brought on by earthquakes frequently results in significant property damage and casualties. At present, the research on displacement response of a slope under earthquake has mainly emphasized the action of the mainshock, without accounting for the impact of an aftershock, and the spatial variability of material parameters is often neglected. The spatial variability of parameters is fully accounted for in this paper, and dynamic reliability of permanent displacement (D-P) of a slope produced by the mainshock-aftershock sequence (MAS) is studied. A slope reliability analysis method is proposed based on the Newmark displacement method and the generalized probability density evolution method (GPDEM) to quantify the effect of the spatial variability of materials parameters on dynamic reliability. Firstly, the parameter random field is generated based on the spectral representation method, and the randomly generated parameters are assigned to the finite element model (FEM). In addition, the random simulation method of MAS considering the correlation between aftershock and mainshock is adopted based on the Copula function to generate the MAS. Then, the D-P of slopes caused by the MAS considering the spatial variability is calculated based on the Newmark method. The impacts of the coefficient of variation (COV) and aftershock on the D-P of slope is analyzed by means of mean values. Finally, the effect of COV and aftershock on the reliability of D-P is explained from a probabilistic point of view based on the GPDEM. The results revealed that with the increase in the COV, the mean of the D-P of the slope shows a trend of increasing gradually. The D-P of slope is more sensitive to the coefficient of variation of friction angle (COVF). The mean D-P of the slope induced by the MAS is larger compared to the single mainshock, and the PGA has a significant impact on the D-P.