The impact of industrial structure upgrading and digital economy integration on China's urban carbon emissions

This paper is based on the research hypothesis that the development of the digital economy can enable urban carbon emission reduction. We use the panel data of 275 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2019, the static panel-data interaction-effect model, and the panel-threshold model to verify the non-linear impact mechanism and heterogeneity of the digital economy in industrial structure upgrading affecting urban carbon emissions. The results demonstrate the following insights. First, due to the heterogeneity of industries, an increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry cannot reduce urban carbon emissions. Second, the digital economy has an inverted U-shaped adjustment effect on the process of industrial structure upgrading, affecting urban carbon emissions. Consequently, the integration and development of the tertiary industry and the digital economy can achieve urban carbon emission reductions. Finally, the digital economy has a double threshold effect on the process of industrial structure upgrading, affecting urban carbon emissions. The carbon-emission-reduction effect of industrial structure upgrading only appears after the scale of the digital economy crosses the first threshold. As the scale of the digital economy continues to increase, the carbon-emission-reduction effect of industrial structures is likely to continue increasing significantly. We recommend that local governments achieve urban carbon reduction by encouraging the development of high-end service industries and strengthening digital infrastructure.