Investigation of climate change impacts on agricultural production in Turkey using volumetric water footprint approach

This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on agricultural production and incomes in 25 river basins of Turkey, with a focus on water availability assessment using a volumetric water footprint approach under two-greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for three periods from 2015 to 2100. The study showed that the highest impact of climate change on water availability is expected to be ob-served during the 2015-2040 period. The irrigation water demands show the risk of water deficiency with a pos-sible decrease from a surplus of 14.6 km3 per year to a deficit of 57.3 km3 under the RCP8.5 scenario for the 2071-2100 period. Both the total production and incomes in the Aegean region might decrease drastically up to 100 %. The estimated cost of climate change is between euro 14.15 and euro 18.01 Billion per year if no action is taken. Therefore, there is an urgent need to increase water use efficiency and productivity in 15 river basins. The median income per water used was found as 2.24 euro /m3. The ranking of agricultural products according to their annual production, income and blue water footprints revealed that among the 12 priority key products, maize and wheat are highly vulnerable to drought as a consequence of climate change.(c) 2022 Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.