Potential impact of future land use/cover dynamics on the habitat quality of the Yayo Coffee Forest Biosphere Reserve, southwestern Ethiopia

Human activities, including agricultural expansion, urbanization, and industrial advancement, have led to land use/cover change (LULCC). These changes have had negative consequences, such as the loss of species and the degradation of forest areas. The Yayo Coffee Forest Biosphere Reserve (YCFBR) is undergoing changes due to forest fires and encroachment from coffee plantations, which are predicted to increase in the future. The objective of this study was to simulate the dynamics of LULCC and its impact on habitat quality in the area over the next three decades. The study used classified land cover (LC) maps of 1992, 2022, and 2052 (predicted), as well as factor and constraint maps of the area. In addition, household surveys, key informant interviews (KII), and focus group discussions (FGD) were conducted to understand the factors influencing changes in habitat quality. Habitat quality was simulated under three different future scenarios (Business as Usual; S1), conservation scenario (S2), and development scenario (S3) using CA-Markov, Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS), and Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) models. The result showed a 28% increase in open forest and a 35% increase in agricultural area under S1, with a minimal increase in built-up area. The medium-level habitat quality increased from 11.3% in 1992 to 27.8% in 2052 S3. The highest average haitat quality value was 0.62 in S2, while the lowest was 0.51 in S3. If S3 is the case, this value is expected to fall below 40%, indicating the lowest possible level of habitat quality in the future. The model also predicts a 7% increase in high forest areas in S2, indicating the possibility of an alternative path to save high forest loss in the area. The main causes of habitat quality deterioration include population growth, agricultural land expansion, a lack of diverse incomes, land tenure issues, and settlement expansion. Based on the findings, S2 appears to be the best future scenario for maintaining habitat quality. This study provides useful information that will help planners and decision-makers effectively prepare future conservation strategies.