Analysis of the Decoupling State and Driving Effects of Economic Development and Production Water Use in Jiangsu Province, China

Identifying the evolutionary patterns and drivers of regional water use is a prerequisite for achieving the strictest water resource management system. This study used the Tapio-LMDI model to analyze the decoupling state and driving factors between economic development and production water use in Jiangsu Province from 2004 to 2020. The results show that: (1) From the evolution of the water use structure, the total water use in Jiangsu Province shows a decreasing trend from 2004 to 2020. Among them, the production water use decreased by 9.59%. From the characteristics of economic development (constant prices), the growth of Jiangsu's gross regional product (GDP) from 2004 to 2020 reached 363%. (2) In terms of the decoupling status, economic development and production water use in Jiangsu Province underwent a "weak decoupling-strongly decoupling" transition and achieved "strongly decoupling" in 2020, with a decoupling elasticity coefficient of -2.30. (3) From the perspective of the decoupling drivers, the reduction in production effects has contributed to the decoupling between economic growth and water use in Jiangsu Province. By sector, the decline in the water use intensity effect and the industrial structure effect in the primary and secondary sectors were the main reason for the decline in its water use, while the increase in the industrial structure effect and economic scale effect of the tertiary sector has effectively contributed to the increase in water use in the tertiary sector. Therefore, there is an urgent need to improve the water use efficiency of the primary and secondary sectors, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the tertiary sector, and realize a "strongly decoupling" pattern between economic development and production water use in Jiangsu Province.