Watershed Hydrological Responses to Land Cover Changes at Muger Watershed, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Changes in land cover (LC) are the major factors influencing the hydrological processes within a watershed. Understanding the impacts of LC on watershed hydrology is crucial for planning and predicting land resource utilization, water resources, and sustaining hydrological balance. This study assesses the hydrological responses of LC changes in the Muger watershed located in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) from 1986 to 2020. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model to investigate the effects of LC on the hydrological process. The simulations were driven by several datasets, such as watershed elevations, mean climatology, hydrology and soil datasets, and LC satellite maps for three time periods (i.e., satellite imagery taken in 1986, 2003, and 2020). We found that the key LC changes that affected hydrological parameters in the Muger watershed are changes in cultivation land, forest land, and settlement. The expansion of cultivation land and shrinkage of forest and shrub lands triggered surface runoff and a reduction in groundwater between 1986 and 2003. Additionally, settlement was identified as the primary factor contributing to increases in evapotranspiration (ET) and surface runoff. The LC changes that occurred between 1986 and 2020 reduced the average annual, wet season, and dry season streamflow. Between 2003 and 2020, surface runoff decreased by 3.71% due to the effect of land landscape restoration interventions. The outcome of the study can assist decision-makers and planners in preparing adaptable strategies under changing LC conditions within a watershed.