Government Ownership of IMF Conditionality Programs: Conceptualization, Measurement, and Validation

被引:2
|
作者
Konstantinidis, Nikitas [1 ]
Reinsberg, Bernhard [2 ]
机构
[1] IE Univ, Sch Polit Econ & Global Affairs SPEGA, Int & Comparative Polit Econ, Segovia, Spain
[2] Glasgow Univ, Int Relations, Glasgow, Scotland
关键词
POLITICAL-ECONOMY; INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS; COUNTRY OWNERSHIP; AID; LIBERALIZATION; GLOBALIZATION; AGREEMENTS; STATE; MONEY;
D O I
10.1093/isq/sqad074
中图分类号
D81 [国际关系];
学科分类号
030207 ;
摘要
The shifting emphasis on performance evaluation and accountability in the context of financial lending or foreign-aid arrangements sponsored by international organizations (IOs) has brought to the fore the question of government ownership of reforms. While the concept of ownership has featured highly in academic and policy debates over the effects of IO conditionality, it arguably remains theoretically elusive, ill-identified, and under-specified. In this article, we focus on International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs and define government ownership with respect to the counterfactual level of de jure structural reforms that would be achieved in the absence of IMF conditionality. We then use the synthetic control method to identify continuous levels of ownership as a function of a treatment effect on treated compliers and operationalize the concept of ownership over external- and financial-sector conditionality across a restricted sample of uninterrupted IMF arrangements (1980-2014). Furthermore, we probe the criterion and construct validity of our measure with respect to known determinants, proxies, and outcomes of ownership. We argue that ours is a reliable, replicable, valid, robust, and systematic measure of ownership that can help better identify and estimate the indirect relationship between program design and policy implementation. El enfasis cambiante en la evaluacion del desempeno y la responsabilidad en el contexto de los prestamos financieros o los acuerdos de ayuda exterior patrocinados por organizaciones internacionales (OOII) ha puesto de relieve la cuestion de la apropiacion de las reformas por parte del Gobierno. Si bien el concepto de la apropiacion ha ocupado un lugar destacado en los debates academicos y politicos sobre los efectos de la condicionalidad de las OOII, podria decirse que sigue siendo teoricamente elusivo, mal identificado y poco especificado. En este articulo, nos centramos en los programas del Fondo Monetario Internacional y definimos la apropiacion por parte del Gobierno en relacion con el nivel contrafactual de las reformas estructurales de jure que se lograrian en ausencia de la condicionalidad del FMI. A continuacion, utilizamos el metodo de control sintetico para identificar niveles continuos de apropiacion como funcion de un efecto de tratamiento sobre los cumplidores (compliers) tratados. Ademas, utilizamos este metodo para poner en practica el concepto de apropiacion sobre la condicionalidad de los sectores externo y financiero en una muestra restringida de acuerdos ininterrumpidos del FMI (1980-2014). Finalmente, investigamos la validez de criterio y de constructo de nuestra medida con respecto a los determinantes, indicadores y resultados conocidos de la apropiacion. Argumentamos que nuestra medicion de la apropiacion es fiable, replicable, valida, solida y sistematica que puede ayudar a identificar y estimar mejor la relacion indirecta entre el diseno de los programas y la implementacion de politicas. L'interet croissant pour l'evaluation des performances et la responsabilite dans le contexte des prets financiers ou des arrangements relatifs a l'aide etrangere des organisations internationales (OI) a fait apparaitre la question de la propriete gouvernementale des reformes. Bien que le concept de propriete se situe au c oe ur des debats academiques et politiques relatifs aux effets de la conditionnalite des OI, il reste complique a theoriser, mal identifie et peu precise. Dans cet article, nous nous focalisons sur les programmes du Fonds Monetaire International pour definir la propriete gouvernementale relativement au niveau contrefactuel des reformes structurelles de jure qui seraient obtenues en l'absence de la conditionnalite du FMI. Ensuite, nous utilisons la methode a controle synthetique pour identifier les niveaux durables de propriete comme une fonction d'un effet de traitement sur les patients volontaires. Nous souhaitons egalement rendre operationnel le concept de propriete de la conditionnalite des secteurs externes et financiers au sein d'un echantillon restreint d'accords ininterrompus du FMI (1980-2014). De plus, nous sondons le critere pour etablir la validite de notre mesure par rapport aux determinants, intermediaires et resultats connus de la propriete. Nous soutenons la fiabilite, la replicabilite, la validite, la solidite et la systematicite de notre mesure de la responsabilite. Elle permet de mieux identifier et estimer la relation indirecte entre la conception d'un programme et la mise en application d'une politique.
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页数:14
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