Integrated effects of land use and land cover change on carbon metabolism: Based on ecological network analysis

Faced with increasingly severe climate change, assessing integrated effects of Land use and land cover (LULC) changes on carbon metabolism contributes to the understanding of the mechanism of LULC-carbon interactions and is crucial to enhance the benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions, increasing regional carbon sinks and formulating future mitigation policies. In this paper, we have developed a hybrid analytical framework that couples natural and socioeconomic systems, and used socioeconomic data, high-resolution remote sensing data, and empirical coefficients to analyze spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon metabolism and applied ecological network analysis (ENA) to evaluate integrated effects of LULC changes upon carbon metabolism. We used Gansu Province, an economically underdeveloped region, as an example for case analysis and policy recommendations. The results showed that: (1) the total carbon emissions in Gansu increased 3.18 times between 1995 and 2020, with transportation and industrial land being the major contributors. The carbon balance status was increasingly severe, and the amount of carbon sequestration to offset carbon emissions decreased from 22.45% in 1995 to 7.11% in 2020. (2) ENA revealed that competition relations between land use types fluctuated up and dominated in 2020, with the mean value of mutualism index was 0.72, which suggested that that integrated effects of LULC changes on whole regional carbon metabolism was negative. Compared to developed regions, the ecological relationships between different land use types in Gansu were more competitive. (3) To address these issues, we have proposed comprehensive policies in terms of adjusting industrial structure, reducing fossil energy use, saving land for construction, and developing carbon sink industries. The study explored the intricate interactions between LULC changes, carbon transition, and regional carbon metabolism in underdeveloped region, and its framework and findings provide insights and recommendations for spatial planning and carbon management in Gansu Province and other regions that may have comparable challenges.