Quantitative Risk Evaluation of Antimicrobial-Resistant Vibrio parahaemolyticus Isolated from Farmed Grey Mullets in Singapore

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a causative pathogen for gastroenteritis involving the consumption of undercooked or raw seafood. However, there is a paucity of data regarding the quantitative detection of this pathogen in finfish, while no study reported the enumeration of haemolytic antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) V. parahaemolyticus. In this study, ampicillin-, penicillin G- and tetracycline-resistant and non-AMR haemolytic V. parahaemolyticus isolates were monitored and quantified in grey mullet samples reared locally from different premises within the food chain (farm and retail). Occurrence data for haemolytic V. parahaemolyticus were 13/45 (29%) in farm fish samples, 2/6 (one third) from farm water samples and 27/45 (60%) from retail fish samples. Microbial loads for haemolytic V. parahaemolyticus microbial loads ranged from 1.9 to 4.1 Log CFU/g in fish samples and 2.0 to 3.0 Log CFU/g in farm water samples. AMR risk assessments (ARRAs) for both the full farm-to-home and partial retail-to-home chains in the risk modelling framework were conducted, specifically for ampicillin, penicillin G, tetracycline and haemolytic (non-AMR) scenarios. The haemolytic ARRA predicted an average probability of illness of 2.9 x 10(-4) and 4.5 x 10(-5) per serving for the farm-to-home and retail-to-home chains, respectively, translating to 57 and 148 cases annually. The ratios of the average probability of illness per year for the three ARRAs to the haemolytic ARRA were 1.1 x 10(-2) and 3.0 x 10(-4) (ampicillin and penicillin G, respectively) for the farm-to-home chain and 1.3, 1.6 and 0.4 (ampicillin, penicillin G and tetracycline, respectively) for the retail-to-home chain. Sensitivity analysis showed that the initial concentrations of haemolytic V. parahaemolyticus in the gills and intestines of the fish and the cooking and washing of the fish cavity were the major variables influencing risk outputs in all modelled ARRAs. The findings of this study are useful for relevant stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding risk management to improve overall food safety.