Dynamic Pricing for the Open Online Ticket System: A Surrogate Modeling Approach

Dynamic pricing is frequently used in online marketplaces, ticket sales, and booking systems. The commercial principles of dynamic pricing systems are often kept secret; however, their application causes complex changes in human behavior. Thus, a scientific tool is needed to evaluate and predict the impact of dynamic pricing strategies. Publications in the field lack a common quality evaluation methodology, public data, and source code, making them difficult to reproduce. In this paper, a data-driven method, DPRank, for evaluating dynamic pricing systems is proposed. DPRank first builds a surrogate price elasticity of demand model using public data generated by a hidden dynamic pricing model, and then applies the surrogate model to build an exposed dynamic pricing model. The hidden and exposed dynamic pricing models were then systematically compared in terms of quality using a Monte Carlo simulation in terms of a company's revenue. The effectiveness of the proposed method was tested on the dataset collected from the website of a Russian railway passenger carrier company. Depending on the train type, the quality difference between the hidden and exposed models can vary by several dozen percent on average, indicating the potential for improving the existing (hidden) company's dynamic pricing model.