Do Different Credit Flows Affect the Current Account Differently? Evidence from Emerging Economies

This paper examines the impact of credit flows, both at the aggregated and disaggregated level, on current account balances for five Southeast Asian economies. Evidence shows that total credit flows improve the current account position, especially in India and Indonesia, in the presence of adequate financial development. Nevertheless, for China, we find that credit flows lead to a decline in current account balances. When disaggregating the total credit flows, in the case of China, we find that household credit negatively influences the current account balance while the bank and business do not have any significant effect. Similarly, for India, we find that most of the improvement in the current account from credit flows comes from household and bank credit. Interestingly, in the case of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, we find evidence of aggregation bias. The asymmetric impact of disaggregated credit flows implies that policy prescriptions based on aggregate credit flows may be ill-advised and macroeconomic policymakers must implement targeted measures for different types of credit.