In this paper, we investigate whether key relations in the crude oil market have been stable over time. This is done by estimating hybrid time-varying parameter structural Bayesian VAR models using monthly data ranging from February 1973 to May 2023. Model selection suggests that while stochastic volatility is preferred over homoscedasticity, the dynamics of the model are best described by constant parameters in all equations.
机构:
Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USAInt Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
Rebei, Nooman
Sbia, Rashid
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机构:
Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Cent Marseille,AMSE, Marseille, France
Minist Finance United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi, U Arab EmiratesInt Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
机构:
Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Coll Business & Secur Management, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USAUniv Alaska Fairbanks, Coll Business & Secur Management, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA