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Solar geoengineering and carbon removal significantly lower economic climate damages
被引:4
|作者:
Liu, Aobo
[1
,2
]
Moore, John C.
[2
,3
]
Cheng, Xiao
[4
,5
]
Chen, Yating
[1
,2
]
机构:
[1] Shandong Normal Univ, Coll Geog & Environm, Jinan 250014, Peoples R China
[2] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[3] Univ Lapland, Arctic Ctr, FI-96101 Rovaniemi, Finland
[4] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geospatial Engn & Sci, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China
[5] Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China
来源:
基金:
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词:
SOCIAL COST;
IMPACTS;
POLICY;
RESPONSES;
SCIENCE;
DESIGN;
D O I:
10.1016/j.oneear.2023.09.004
中图分类号:
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号:
08 ;
0830 ;
摘要:
Quantifying climate change impacts informs policy decisions and risk management. However, integrated assessment models have inherent problems in simulating geoengineered climates, limiting their capacity to assess the efficacy and risks of geoengineering as complementary measures to conventional strategies. Here, we improve climate-induced economic impact assessment, without considering social and ecological damages, for 12 scenarios by assimilating projections from 48 climate models into the PAGE-ICE model. The sustainable development pathway, including considerable implicit carbon dioxide removal, cost-effectively mitigates climate change impacts, as can scenarios that combine politically pledged emissions reductions with moderate solar geoengineering (SAI-1.5). Additionally, we find that combining solar geoengineering with no mitigation (G6) or implementing delayed but stringent carbon dioxide removal (SSP5-3.4-OS) can respectively reduce end-of-century climate damages to one-half or a one-quarter of the baseline SSP5-8.5 scenario. Our findings highlight the importance, potential benefits, and trade-offs of integrating these strategies with conventional mitigation and adaptation actions.
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页码:1375 / 1387
页数:14
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