Present-day model of lunar meteoroids and their impact flashes for LUMIO mission

The Lunar Meteoroid Impacts Observer (LUMIO) is a CubeSat mission to observe, quantify, and characterize the meteoroid impacts by detecting their flashes on the lunar farside. It complements lunar nearside observations performed by ground-based observatories to yield global information synthesis on the lunar meteoroid environment. Predicting LUMIO's scientific outcome involves devising a methodology to model the meteoroid environment. We propose a method where numerous known meteoroid streams, as well as sporadic collisions with the lunar surface, are modeled. Impacts are generated with a stochastic approach based on experimental observations of fireballs, impact flashes, and meteors. A catalog collecting data of both meteoroid streams and sporadic background is made available to the community. Sample scenarios are reproduced to show the capabilities of our method. A synthesis of the statistical analysis performed on the collision dynamics is presented. Results show that a typical scenario counts almost 2 million impacts with impact kinetic energy larger than 10-7 kton TNT Equivalent, out of which approximately 200.000 fall in the energy range of interest for the LUMIO mission. For that subset, the equivalent black body temperature is estimated to range in 1510 -2290 K, the average impact flash duration is expected to be approximately 15 ms, and the average plume area is predicted to be roughly 70 m2.