Food insecurity experience during climate shock periods and farmers' aspiration in Ethiopia

Research on climate change impact focuses on biophysical and economic dimensions. This paper seeks to unveil the association between smallholder farmers' food insecurity experience (FIE) during climate shock periods and their subsequent aspiration level. To this end, our analysis relied on data collected in rural Ethiopia following an unprecedented climate shock the country faced in 2016. We measured food insecurity (FI) using the food insecurity experience scale module (FIES-M) while households' aspirations were captured using an aggregated index measured in four dimensions: asset, income, children's education, and social status. We use both descriptive analysis and multinomial models to portray the association between FIE and aspira-tion. The majority of the respondents (67%) faced FI in varied severity: mild, moderate, and severe. The self-reported food gap months during the shock period ranges between 0 and 9 months. Among individuals reporting a food gap, around 80% faced three or more months. The average farmer had an aspiration level of 0.0042. Aspiration was associated with the socioeco-nomic realities of individuals. Educated, males, households with higher dependency ratio, in -come, and livestock had higher aspiration levels. Aspiration also varied with the severity of food insecurity individuals experienced. Farmers who experienced severe FI during the shock period had lower aspiration levels. A one-month food gap was associated with a decrease in 0.023 standard deviations in aspiration. The association between FI and aspiration level remains true even after controlling for the socioeconomic covariates of aspiration. There is gender disparity in the severity of FIE and aspiration of households during the shock period. However, this was not true when male headed and female headed households are equal in education, income, and asset holdings. In summary, in addition to the resource-related impact, climate shocks may influence the future oriented behavior of farmers. Further research based on longitudinal data is necessary to capture the dynamic nature of aspiration formation and reformation in relation to FIE during climate shock periods.