Analysis of the decoupling effect and driving factors of carbon emissions from the transportation sector in Guangdong Province

To propel the green transformation of the transportation industry in Guangdong Province. Against the backdrop of the five-year plan, this study employs the Tapio decoupling model and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition method to analyze the decoupling status and driving factors of carbon emissions from transportation and economic growth in Guangdong Province from 2001 to 2020. The results show that:(1) Both the total volume of carbon emissions from transportation and per capita emissions exhibit an overall upward trend, with petroleum-based emissions accounting for an overwhelming 96%, with diesel emissions register the highest proportion and most substantial increase. (2) The decoupling status predominantly manifests as weak decoupling, with intermittent years expansive coupling,, expansive negative decoupling, strong decoupling, and recessive coupling, thus indicating a persistent state of decoupling instability. (3) The study introduces the urbanization effect, wherein the effects of income urbanization, as well as spatial urbanization, predominantly exert positive driving influences. Conversely, the effects of energy intensity, population urbanization, industry scale, and energy structure collectively exert negative driving influences. Notably, the effect of income urbanization emerges as the primary factor propelling the augmentation of carbon emissions, while the energy intensity effect serves as the primary factor curbing such escalation. Finally, pertinent policy recommendations are put forth.