Trade-offs of multiple urban ecosystem services based on land-use scenarios in the Tumen River cross-border area

Land use change affected by rapid urbanization, economic development and political influences. As a crucial factor to ecosystem services (ESs), irrational land use is likely to bring about loss of some ecosystem services (ESs). In the meanwhile, the trade-offs occur among the ESs are also changing. This research aims to coordinate the relationship of ESs for land use planning under different scenarios in Tumen River Region. The essay has been organized in the following way. Initially, we analyzed the impact on 6 ESs in the context of the local land use change. Furthermore, we explored their trade-offs among the ESs and seek to provide theoretical support to planning and management in the Tumen River Region. Here, we used data from 1996 to 2006 and 2006-2016 to examine how the ecosystem services are affected by trade-offs in three different scenarios: Baseline Development (BD), Fast Development (FD), and Harmonious Development (HD) by using CASA and USLE models. Additionally, with the help of integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model, we assessed 6 ecosystem services not only including Meat production (MP), Net primary production (NPP), Habitat quality (HQ), but Crop production (CP), Soil conservation (SC), Water retention (WR) as well during 1996-2016. Firstly, we demonstrated the numerous trade-offs and/or synergistic interactions between ESs. Then we assessed these ESs at the regional scale based on the 3 scenarios. Finally, we explored the optimal scenario. Results show that (1) it was significant that the dramatic land use change in the study area from 1996 to 2016, especially in cultivated land and forested land;(2) the total ESV in the study area initially decreased and then increased, and showed a gradual improvement trend during 1996-2016;(3) multiple ESs in addition to 2 ESs, containing Habitat Quality (HQ) and Soil Conservation (SC), there are also Water Retention (WR) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) during 1996-2016 showed positive correlations. However, Crop and Meat Production vs Soil Retention was not significantly correlated in the study period;(4) among all scenario simulations, ESs showed the most improvement in the HD scenario, and following closely behind are the BD scenario and the FD scenario. The BD scenario had fewer trade-offs compared with against 2016, and the HD and FD scenarios had more;(5) relative to the catchment area, the HD scenario is the optimal situation. Our findings will provide some references for the construction of land use management and ecological civilization in cross-border area.