Optimal planning of an economic and resilient district integrated energy system considering renewable energy uncertainty and demand response under natural disasters

A district integrated energy system characterized by multi-energy complementary and supply-demand interaction is a new idea to promote the resilience of urban energy systems. Compared with the post-disaster emergency response and rapid recovery, incorporating the impact of extreme events into the early-stage energy system planning is crucial to improve its resilience. While considering the uncertainty of renewable energy and demand response, this study proposes an optimal planning method which can deal with both economic performance and resilience of a district integrated energy system under extreme natural disasters. Firstly, by employing the kmeans clustering algorithm and the extreme natural hazard modeling method, three typical days and five extreme natural disasters are deduced, respectively. Secondly, the critical load and non-critical load are decomposed according to the energy consumption characteristics of multiple end-users. Thirdly, taking the lowest overall energy cost of the system as the objective function and satisfaction of critical loads as the core constraint, a mathematical model for collaborative optimization of equipment configuration and operation strategy is developed. Finally, the evaluation index of the system resilience is proposed, and the marginal cost of resilience improvement is calculated. According to the simulation results of an illustrative example, the consideration of extreme natural disasters may increase the total system cost by 6.78% within the planning period. Moreover, The marginal cost of resilience improvement increases exponentially with the advancement of system resilience.