News of disinflation and firms' expectations: New causal evidence

被引：0
|
作者：
Caruso-Bloeck, Martin [1 ]
Mello, Miguel [2 ]
Ponce, Jorge [2 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA USA
[2] Banco Cent Uruguay, Montevideo, Uruguay
[3] dECON FCS UdelaR, Montevideo, Uruguay
来源：
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE | 2023年 / 137卷
关键词：
Inflation expectations; Economic expectations; Disinflation; Monetary policy communication; Randomized control trial; Firms ' survey; INFORMATION;
D O I：
10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102914
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
We causally identify how firms' inflation and growth expectations respond to information about a comprehensive reform in the monetary policy framework by means of a randomized control trial. The reform is intended to lower inflation significantly in the coming years, making this experiment unique relative to previous ones that are carried out in stable and consolidated monetary policy frameworks. Firms treated with information about the reform lower their inflation and cost expectations by about 0.5 percentage points, with the effect being persistent sixth months after the treatment. Treated firms also expect temporarily lower GDP growth.
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页数：14
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