Has industrial structure upgrading reduced agricultural carbon emissions? An empirical analysis from China

Industrial structure upgrading (ISU) is a crucial step towards achieving low-carbon development for China. This paper aims to assess the influence of ISU on agricultural carbon emissions (ACE), and unveil its underlying mechanism. By employing the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), the findings demonstrate that ISU has a significant inhibitory effect on ACE, while displaying a promoting effect on ACE of neighbouring regions. Additionally, transportation infrastructure and population density have an intermediary effect in the relationship. When using ISU and level of economic development as a threshold variable, ISU exhibits a positive impact before the threshold, and a negative impact after the threshold. Furthermore, this study reveals regional heterogeneity, that is, ISU has varying impacts on ACE in eastern, central and western China.