Effect of the FDA Black Box Suicidality Warnings for Antidepressants on Suicide Rates in the USA Signal or Noise?

Background: Some authors claimed that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) black box warning on treatment-emergent suicidality with antidepressants in adolescents (issued 2004) and young adults (issued 2006) led to an increase of suicides, based on the analyses of ecological data with debatable assumptions about putative changes in suicide rates. Aims: To explore if putative changes in suicide rates in adolescents and young adults at the time of the FDA warnings is a detectable signal in the data or compatible with random fluctuations. Method: We applied different changepoint analyses for adolescent and young adult suicide rates from 1981 to 2019 in the USA. Results: Changepoint analysis did not support a detrimental effect of the FDA black box warnings. The downward trend of suicides reversed several years after the warning in adolescents (2007-2009) and many years before in young adults (1999-2001). Limitations: Our analyses cannot rule out detrimental effects of the FDA warnings. However, even if there was such an effect, it was likely small and indistinguishable from random fluctuations in the available suicide data. Conclusion: There is no detectable change of trend in adolescent or young adult suicide rates in line with a detrimental effect of the FDA black box warnings on treatment-emergent suicidality.