Impact of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming on aircraft takeoff performance in China

Associated with global warming, climate extremes such as extreme temperature will significantly increase. Understanding how climate change will impact the airflights is important to the planning of future flight operations. In this study, the impacts of 1.5 and 2 degree’s global warming on the aircraft takeoff performance in China are investigated using a unique climate projection data from an international collaboration project named HAPPI. It is found that the mean summer daily maximum temperature, which is a major factor that affects the flight through changing the aircraft’s takeoff weight, will increase significantly with magnitude less than 1.5℃ over most parts of China except for the Tibetan Plateau. The half a degree additional global warming will lead to higher extreme temperature in the arid and semi-arid western China, the Tibetan Plateau and the northeastern China, while the change in eastern China is weak. Five airports including Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming, Lasa and Urumqi will see ～1.0°-2.0℃(1.4°-3.0℃) higher daily maximum temperature under 1.5℃(2.0℃) scenario. The half-degree additional warming will lead to a shift toward higher extreme temperature in these five sites. For both1.5° and 2.0℃ scenarios, the number of weight-restriction days will increase significantly at 3 airports including Beijing, Shanghai, and Lasa. Urumqi will witness an increase of weight-restriction days only in 2.0℃ future.