Calculation on energy-related CO2 emissions in China(2010～2050)

On the basis of MARKAL-MACRO model of"Energy-Economy-Environment"system and Keyfitz model of demography,energy demand in China in the future was calculated.Three scenarios were put forward taking into account of energy efficiency, energy structure and restriction of climate change.CO2 Emissions in China will reach peak value 11.85 Gt in 2042 in reference scenario;10.75 Gt in 2036 in optimized scenario;and 9.47 Gt in 2031 in restriction scenario of climate change. Compare with reference scenario, carbon emissions in restriction scenario of climate change will decline by 2.38 Gt,and peak time will be llyears earlier.With the development of urbanization and industrialization,carbon emissions from electric power, cement,steel will rise gradually then go down;but emissions from traffic will go up continuously because of the increase of vehicle fleet.