Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts. Therefore, studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is vital. In this study, we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models(GCMs) provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP), and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index(SPI) in the Karoun River Basin(KRB) of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) emission scenarios, i.e.,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3(MRI-CGCM3) is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period(1990–2005). The root mean square error(RMSE) value is less than 0.75 in 77% of the synoptic stations. GCMs have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the plain. Using the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the results. The results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB, drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. At the seasonal scale, the decreasing trend for SPI in spring,summer, and winter shows a drought tendency in this region. The climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences, especially in agriculture and rural livelihoods. Accordingly, an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the damages. The results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.
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Shahrekord Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Water, Water Sci & Engn Water Resources, Shahrekord, IranShahrekord Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Water, Water Sci & Engn Water Resources, Shahrekord, Iran
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Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
Islamic Azad Univ, Sci & Res Branch, Young Researchers & Elites Club, Tehran, IranIslamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
Nabaei, Sina
Sharafati, Ahmad
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Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, IranIslamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
Sharafati, Ahmad
Yaseen, Zaher Mundher
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Ton Duc Thang Univ, Fac Civil Engn, Sustainable Dev Civil Engn Res Grp, Ho Chi Minh City, VietnamIslamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
Yaseen, Zaher Mundher
Shahid, Shamsuddin
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UTM, Fac Engn, Sch Civil Engn, Johor Baharu, MalaysiaIslamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
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Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, IranIslamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
Khaghani, Zahra
Sharafati, Ahmad
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Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
Al Ayen Univ, Sci Res Ctr, New Era & Dev Civil Engn Res Grp, Nasiriyah 64001, IraqIslamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
Sharafati, Ahmad
Kheyruri, Yusef
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Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, IranIslamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
Kheyruri, Yusef
Hameed, Asaad Shakir
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Minist Educ, Dept Math, Gen Directorate Thi Qar Educ, Thi Qar 64001, Iraq
AL Ayen Univ, Petr Engn Coll, Thi Qar 64001, IraqIslamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran
Hameed, Asaad Shakir
Ariyaei, Arezoo
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Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, West Tehran Branch, Tehran, IranIslamic Azad Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sci & Res Branch, Tehran, Iran