WRF模式不同云参数化方案的暴雨预报能力检验及集成试验

被引：21

作者：

梅钦 ^{[1
]}

智协飞 ^{[1
,2
]}

王佳 ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室

[2] 南京大气科学联合研究中心

[3] 江苏省气候中心

来源：

大气科学学报 | 2018年 / 41卷 / 06期

关键词：

暴雨; WRF模式; 微物理参数化方案; 积云对流参数化方案; 集成试验;

D O I：

10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20180306002

中图分类号：

P457.6 [降水预报];

学科分类号：

摘要：

利用WRFV3. 6的8种微物理方案和6种积云参数化方案对湖北及其周边地区夏季12次暴雨过程进行回报,分析各种方案对暴雨预报的影响。结果显示,各种方案均能较好地预报出降水过程,但其降水强度和范围存在一定差异。当积云参数化方案为KF方案时,对Lin、WSM6、Thompson、Morrison 2-mom、CAM5. 1、WDM5、WDM6、NSSL 2-mom微物理方案做敏感性试验,发现CAM 5. 1方案优于其他7种微物理方案,M orrison 2-mom次之。当微物理方案为CAM 5. 1时,对KF、BM J、GD、SAS、G3D、Tiedtke积云参数化方案做敏感性试验,发现在不同量级降水预报中,6种积云参数化方案各有优劣。综合考虑,GD、SAS、Tiedtke积云参数化方案优于其他3种方案。在此基础上开展多方案集成试验,结果表明集合平均(ensemble mean,EMN)在一定程度上可以减少预报误差,降低单个成员预报的不确定性。

引用

页码：731 / 742

页数：12

共 25 条

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