Understanding the initial conditions contributing to the rapid intensification of typhoons through ensemble sensitivity analysis

被引：0
|
作者：
Yixuan Ren
Lili Lei
Jian-Feng Gu
Zhe-Min Tan
Yi Zhang
机构：
[1] KeyLaboratoryofMesoscaleSevereWeather,MinistryofEducation,andSchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity
来源：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2025年 / 18卷 / 02期
关键词：
台风; 快速增强; 集合敏感性分析; 复合敏感性;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P444 [热带气象];
学科分类号：
摘要：
针对台风强度特别是快速增强(RI)的预报难点,本文对2016年5个台风的6次RI过程应用集合敏感性分析(ESA),以分析有利于RI的初始条件.对于不同的个例和积云参数化方案, ESA获得的有利于台风RI的集合敏感性相似但量级存在差异.复合敏感性揭示了经历RI的台风所需的初始条件,其有更强的主环流,更显著的暖心及增加的低层湿度.ESA估计的集合敏感性随预报时长增加而减弱.通过采样复合敏感性可有望改进集合初始条件及台风强度预报.
引用
收藏
页码：38 / 44
页数：7
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