Understanding the initial conditions contributing to the rapid intensification of typhoons through ensemble sensitivity analysis

被引：0
|
作者：
Yixuan Ren
Lili Lei
Jian-Feng Gu
Zhe-Min Tan
Yi Zhang
机构：
[1] KeyLaboratoryofMesoscaleSevereWeather,MinistryofEducation,andSchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity
来源：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2025年 / 18卷 / 02期
关键词：
台风; 快速增强; 集合敏感性分析; 复合敏感性;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P444 [热带气象];
学科分类号：
摘要：
针对台风强度特别是快速增强(RI)的预报难点,本文对2016年5个台风的6次RI过程应用集合敏感性分析(ESA),以分析有利于RI的初始条件.对于不同的个例和积云参数化方案, ESA获得的有利于台风RI的集合敏感性相似但量级存在差异.复合敏感性揭示了经历RI的台风所需的初始条件,其有更强的主环流,更显著的暖心及增加的低层湿度.ESA估计的集合敏感性随预报时长增加而减弱.通过采样复合敏感性可有望改进集合初始条件及台风强度预报.
引用
收藏
页码：38 / 44
页数：7
相关论文
共 49 条
  • [1] Understanding the Processes Causing the Early Intensification of Hurricane Dorian through an Ensemble of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
    Hazelton, Andrew
    Alaka, Ghassan J., Jr.
    Cowan, Levi
    Fischer, Michael
    Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman
    ATMOSPHERE, 2021, 12 (01) : 1
  • [2] Semiclassical analysis and sensitivity to initial conditions
    Paul, Thierry
    INFORMATION AND COMPUTATION, 2009, 207 (05) : 660 - 669
  • [3] Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate during the Development Stage
    Hu, Chih-Chi
    Wu, Chun-Chieh
    JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2020, 77 (10) : 3387 - 3405
  • [4] Hydrological ensemble forecasting in mesoscale catchments: Sensitivity to initial conditions and value of reforecasts
    Fundel, Felix
    Zappa, Massimiliano
    WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2011, 47
  • [5] Ensemble initial conditions through 4D-Var assimilation
    Goswami, P
    Gouda, KC
    Talagrand, O
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2005, 32 (21) : 1 - 5
  • [6] Ensemble Sensitivity of Precipitation Type to Initial Conditions for a Major Freezing Rain Event in Montreal
    Tootill, Daniel
    Kirshbaum, Daniel J.
    MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2022, 150 (07) : 1761 - 1780
  • [7] Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun(2014)
    Xun LI
    Noel E.DAVIDSON
    Yihong DUAN
    Kevin J.TORY
    Zhian SUN
    Qinbo CAI
    AdvancesinAtmosphericSciences, 2020, 37 (02) : 187 - 210
  • [8] Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun (2014)
    Li, Xun
    Davidson, Noel E.
    Duan, Yihong
    Tory, Kevin J.
    Sun, Zhian
    Cai, Qinbo
    ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2020, 37 (02) : 187 - 210
  • [9] Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun (2014)
    Xun Li
    Noel E. Davidson
    Yihong Duan
    Kevin J. Tory
    Zhian Sun
    Qinbo Cai
    Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2020, 37 : 187 - 210
  • [10] Initial Condition Sensitivity of Western Pacific Extratropical Transitions Determined Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis
    Torn, Ryan D.
    Hakim, Gregory J.
    MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2009, 137 (10) : 3388 - 3406
12345