Simulating the Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecological Security Pattern from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration, China

Rapid urbanization has further expanded the scale of construction land in urban agglomerations. The encroachment of urban land on ecological land has led to severe ecological problems and threatened the stability of ecological security in urban agglomerations. Analyzing the characteristics of future urban multi-scenario expansion and its impacts on ecological security patterns (ESP) can provide guidance for formulating ecologically sustainable management and control Policies. Our study focuses on Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan (CZX) urban agglomeration as the study area and establishes an ESP. Additionally, a cellular automata (CA) was used to simulate future urban expansion patterns under three scenarios (i.e., natural development scenario, urban development scenario, and ecological conservation scenario). The subsequent analysis evaluates their impact on the ESP. The simulation results indicate that from 2020 to 2030, the CZX urban agglomeration will undergo rapid urban expansion under the natural development scenario and urban development scenario, characterized by outward growth surrounding the existing construction land. In the natural development scenario, urban expansion is primarily concentrated in the northwest and south directions of construction land, the proportion of construction land increased by 2.78%; in the urban development scenario, it is concentrated in the southeast direction of construction land, the proportion of construction land increased by 3.24%. Ecological conflicts in the aforementioned development scenarios primarily arise in the southwestern region of Changsha County, as well as the southern areas of Kaifu District and Furong District. Conversely, under the ecological conservation scenario, the rate of urban expansion has significantly decreased, environmental preservation is upheld at its highest level, and the proportion of construction land only increased by 0.04%. Based on the simulation results, we present targeted recommendations for urban land planning and growth management, as well as the protection, restoration, monitoring, and development of ecological land. These suggestions provide effective guidance for improving the stability of ESP in urban agglomerations and promoting high-quality development in Chinese urban agglomerations.