Carbon dioxide emissions forecasting and scenario analysis in China's non-metallic mineral products industry

China's non-metallic mineral product industry (NMPI) is a typical high-emission industry; effective control of CO2 emissions from NMPI is the key to realising China's carbon peaking target. This study used STIRPAT to analyse the influential factors, and the CO2 emissions of the NMPI under various scenarios were forecasted from 2023 to 2040 using HHO-BPNN and scenario analysis. The results show that: NMPI will have difficulty realising carbon peaking by 2030 under the baseline scenario; however, under the scenarios of government regulation, technological breakthrough, and enhanced low-carbon, NMPI can achieve carbon peaking by 2030.