Assessing sector vulnerabilities to physical climate risks: the case of France

Quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on the economy often rely on global temperature-GDP relationships, overlooking the role of precipitation and regional and sectoral differences. This study presents a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of economic sectors to temperature and precipitation anomalies and shocks, using France as a case study. We focus on five climate perils: temperature and precipitation anomalies, heat and cold stress, and heavy rain, and analyze their impact on Gross Value Added across 11 economic sectors as defined by the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community. Our study yields three key findings: (1) certain sectors are more vulnerable to temperature and precipitation anomalies and shocks than others; (2) the persistence of these anomalies or shocks varies by sector; and (3) within the same sector, the impact and persistence of an anomaly or shock differ depending on the quarter in which it occurs. This approach provides a granular, multi-dimensional perspective valuable for policymakers in allocating resources for climate adaptation strategies. The methodology, based on Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag models and wavelet quantile regressions, is replicable in other European countries, offering insights to support a cohesive European adaptation policy.