Spatial-temporal dynamics and vulnerability analysis of population, economy, and environment in mountainous urban agglomerations: a perspective on coordinated development

As the world grapples with challenges climate change, vulnerability analysis has gained prominence to promote coordinated interrelationships in complex systems to ensure sustainable development. Taking Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration as an example, this study assessed the the vulnerability of population, economy, and environment from Coupling Coordinated Development (CCD) perspective from 2005 to 2020. Then, this study analyzes its spatial and temporal evolution and driving factors based on the Geodetector and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model. Key findings indicate the following: (1) From 2005 to 2020, population and economic vulnerability showed a declining trend, while environmental vulnerability demonstrated an increasing trend; (2) At the city level, environmental risks were most prominent in core cities such as Chongqing and Chengdu, while population and economic vulnerabilities were more apparent in smaller cities; (3) The overall CCD has declined, with the highest CCD values in Chongqing and Chengdu but low CCD levels across other cities. Finally, (4) the Geodetector and MGWR results revealed that the CCD is significantly influenced by cultural and pollution-related factors, with various impacts across different periods and cities. These insights contribute to understanding sustainable development in mountainous urban agglomerations, offering guidance for reducing potential risks and vulnerabilities in global sustainability efforts.