Subduction thermal state, slab metamorphism, and seismicity in the Makran Subduction Zone

The dependence of the subduction regime on three-dimensional slab geometry poses a challenge for accurately estimating the evolving thermal structure of megathrusts globally. Although slab dips and ages have gained attention, the specific impacts of oblique subduction remain unmeasured. Here, we present an integrated thermal model that quantifies how slab morphology can shape the thermal state of megathrusts, such as those in the Makran Subduction Zone. The model considers both slab obliquity and depth variations along the trench. We find a considerable match between the slab petrological dehydration zone and the distribution of great crustal earthquakes. We suggest that the accumulation of fluids along megathrusts by slab metamorphism can foster more polarized conditions for decreasing plate coupling and increasing interplate ruptures. It is thus imperative to improve model representation and more realistically represent how drivers of slab geometry affect metamorphic transitions and the occurrence of earthquakes at megathrusts.