Collateral damage: China's anti-dumping case against Canadian canola

In September 2024, China launched a dumping investigation against imports of Canadian canola. The announcement is the latest move in a series of trade disputes between the two countries and is widely seen as retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This paper examines the institutions that govern the dumping investigation and the likely price effects stemming from China's announcement. The investigation will be conducted exclusively within China and appeals to the WTO can only be made on the basis that the Chinese investigation violated WTO rules. Such investigations typically sustain the finding of dumping. Given that Chinese imports of canola seed accounted for 23% of Canadian production in 2023, anti-dumping duties could significantly disrupt trade flows. However, the impact of anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola prices may be mitigated through trade diversion, increased domestic processing, and the pass-through of duties to Chinese importers. En septembre 2024, la Chine a lanc & eacute; une enqu & ecirc;te antidumping sur les importations de canola canadien. Cette annonce constitue la derni & egrave;re & eacute;tape d'une s & eacute;rie de diff & eacute;rends commerciaux entre les deux pays et est largement per & ccedil;ue comme une riposte aux droits de douane canadiens sur les v & eacute;hicules & eacute;lectriques chinois. Cet article examine les institutions qui r & eacute;gissent l'enqu & ecirc;te antidumping ainsi que les effets probables sur les prix d & eacute;coulant de l'annonce de la Chine. L'enqu & ecirc;te sera men & eacute;e exclusivement en Chine, et les recours aupr & egrave;s de l'OMC ne pourront & ecirc;tre d & eacute;pos & eacute;s que si l'enqu & ecirc;te chinoise viole les r & egrave;gles de l'OMC. De telles enqu & ecirc;tes concluent g & eacute;n & eacute;ralement & agrave; l'existence de dumping. & Eacute;tant donn & eacute; que les importations chinoises de graines de canola repr & eacute;sentaient 23 % de la production canadienne en 2023, des droits antidumping pourraient perturber consid & eacute;rablement les flux commerciaux. Cependant, l'impact des mesures antidumping sur les prix du canola canadien pourrait & ecirc;tre att & eacute;nu & eacute; par la r & eacute;orientation des & eacute;changes, l'augmentation de la transformation domestique et la r & eacute;percussion des droits sur les importateurs chinois.