Simulation model calibration with dynamic stratification and adaptive sampling

Calibrating simulation models that take large quantities of multi-dimensional data as input is a hard simulation optimization problem. Existing adaptive sampling strategies offer a methodological solution. However, they may not sufficiently reduce the computational cost for estimation and solution algorithm's progress within a limited budget due to extreme noise levels and heteroscedasticity of system responses. We propose integrating stratification with adaptive sampling for the purpose of efficiency in optimization. Stratification can exploit local dependence in the simulation inputs and outputs. Yet, the state-of-the-art does not provide a full capability to adaptively stratify the data as different solution alternatives are evaluated. We devise two procedures for data-driven calibration problems that involve a large dataset with multiple covariates to calibrate models within a fixed overall simulation budget. The first approach dynamically stratifies the input data using binary trees, while the second approach uses closed-form solutions based on linearity assumptions between the objective function and concomitant variables. We find that dynamical adjustment of stratification structure accelerates optimization and reduces run-to-run variability in generated solutions. Our case study for calibrating a wind power simulation model, widely used in the wind industry, using the proposed stratified adaptive sampling, shows better-calibrated parameters under a limited budget.