Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade

被引：0

作者：

Alessandria, George ^{[1
,2
]}

Khan, Shafaat Yar ^{[3
]}

Khederlarian, Armen ^{[4
]}

Ruhl, Kim J. ^{[2
,5
]}

Steinberg, Joseph B. ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627 USA

[2] Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA USA

[3] Syracuse Univ, Syracuse, NY USA

[4] CUNY Hunter Coll, New York, NY USA

[5] Univ Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI USA

[6] Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

来源：

JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY | 2025年 / 133卷 / 03期

关键词：

UNCERTAINTY; COSTS; HETEROGENEITY; INTEGRATION; AGREEMENTS; BREXIT;

D O I：

10.1086/733420

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We study China's export growth to the United States from 1950-2008, using a structural model to disentangle the effects of past tariff changes from the effects of changes in expectations of future tariffs. We find that the effects of China's 1980 Normal Trade Relations (NTR) grant lasted past its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the likelihood of losing NTR status decreased significantly during 1986-92 but changed little thereafter. US manufacturing employment trends support our findings: industries more exposed to the 1980 reform have shed workers steadily since then without acceleration around China's WTO accession.

引用

页码：713 / 749

页数：37

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