Monitoring Forest Disturbances and Associated Driving Forces in Guangdong Province Using Long-Term Landsat Time Series Images

Research on monitoring forest disturbances and analyzing its driving factors is crucial for the sustainable management of forest ecosystems. To quantitatively identify the spatial distribution and dynamic changes of forest disturbance and its driving factors in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2019, the long-term Landsat time series imagery and the LandTrendr change detection algorithm were utilized. The impact of forest disturbances on four types of landscape fragmentation (attrition, perforation, shrinkage, and subdivision) was analyzed using the Forman index. The Geodetector model was used to analyze the driving factors of forest disturbance from human activity and the natural environment. The results showed that the LandTrendr algorithm achieved a Kappa coefficient of 0.79, with an overall accuracy of approximately 82.59%. The findings indicate a consistent increase in shrinkage patches, both in quantity and area. Spatially, the centroids of forest fragmentation processes exhibited a clear inland migration trend, reflecting the growing ecological pressures faced by inland forest ecosystems. Furthermore, interactions among driving factors, particularly between population density and economic factors, significantly amplified their combined impacts. The correlation between forest disturbances and socio-economic factors revealed distinct regional variations, highlighting significant differences in forest disturbance dynamics across cities with varying levels of economic development. This study provides critical insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest disturbances under rapid urbanization and economic development. It lays the groundwork for sustainable forest management strategies in Guangdong Province and may contribute to global discussions on managing forest ecosystems during periods of rapid socio-economic transformation.