In the context of achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, exploring the changes in land demand and ecological carbon stocks under future scenarios at the urban level is important for optimizing regional ecosystem services and developing a land-use structure consistent with sustainable development strategies. We propose a framework of a coupled system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land-use simulation (PLUS) model, and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to dynamically simulate the spatial and temporal changes of land use and land-cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem carbon stocks under the NDS (natural development scenario), EPS (ecological protection scenario), RES (rapid expansion scenario), and HDS (high-quality development scenario) in Nanjing from 2020 to 2040. From 2005 to 2020, the expansion rate of construction land in Nanjing reached 50.76%, a large amount of ecological land shifted to construction land, and the ecological carbon stock declined dramatically. Compared with 2020, the ecosystem carbon stocks of the EPS and HDS increased by 2.4 x 106 t and 1.5 x 106 t, respectively, with a sizable ecological effect. It has been calculated that forest and cultivated land are the two largest carbon pools in Nanjing, and the conservation of both is decisive for the future carbon stock. It is necessary to focus on enhancing the carbon stock of forest ecosystems while designating differentiated carbon sink enhancement plans based on the characteristics of other land types. Fully realizing the carbon sink potential of each ecological functional area will help Nanjing achieve its carbon neutrality goal. The results of the study not only reveal the challenges of ecological conservation in Nanjing but also provide useful guidance for enhancing the carbon stock of urban terrestrial ecosystems and formulating land-use planning in line with sustainable development strategies.
