Early warning systems and farmers' adaptation to extreme weather: Empirical evidence from the North China Plain

With global climate change posing a significant threat to agricultural production, early warning systems (EWS) play an important role in mitigating the losses induced by extreme weather. However, research on the impact of EWS on farmers' adoption of adaptive measures remains scarce. In particular, the heterogeneous effects of EWS on farmers' adoption of active and passive measures require further examination. This study fills this gap by categorising adaptive measures into sustained and coping measures, with the former referring to actions farmers take to prepare for future potential meteorological disasters and the latter reflecting farmers' actions to reduce losses when facing the aftermath of previous disasters. Our analysis is based on a relatively large sample of 1,219 farmers in the North China Plain. A generalised Poisson regression model and a negative binomial regression model were used to examine the determinants of farmers' adaptation processes. We find that EWS plays a significant role in promoting active and long-term adaptation; however, its effects on passive and short-term emergency actions are insignificant. These findings indicate that the EWS is not a 'silver bullet' for mitigating weather risks and should be supplemented by improving the resilience of agricultural system.