Parameters of the Seismic Regime of the Eastern Sector of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

This work constructs a seismic regime model for the eastern sector of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) based on a newly developed, comprehensive integral earthquake catalog for the region, using a uniform magnitude scale from 1980 to 2020. The model parameters are calculated using a novel high-contrast mean-position method, where values are determined within large-radius circles but are assigned to the mean position of epicenters. A quantitative verification method, the L-test, based on the likelihood function, demonstrates that the model aligns well with the initial data. The magnitude-frequency distribution reconstructed from the model corresponds well with observations, both in terms of slope and the number of earthquakes. The epicenters of the largest earthquakes (M >= 6) from both the 1982-2020 period and the 1900-1981 period, according to the Kondorskaya-Shebalin catalog, are located in areas with high expected recurrence of such earthquakes as calculated by the model.