Risk assessment of earthquake-induced geological hazards considering cultivated land factor: A case study of the Jishishan Ms 6.2 earthquake

On 18 December 2023, a Ms 6.2 earthquake struck the Jishishan area in Northwest China, located at the border of the Qinghai-Tibet and Loess Plateau. The earthquake triggered shallow loess landslides, small rock failures, and soil cracks, mainly along hilly gullies and cut slopes at the edges of terraced fields. A rare large-scale flowslide also occurred in irrigated farmland. These seismic landslides and collapses blocked roads, buried farmland, damaged houses, and resulted in many casualties. Field investigations revealed that these geological hazards were concentrated around cultivated land. Consequently, cultivated land was introduced as an engineering geological zoning factor into the seismic geological hazard risk assessment for Jishishan area. The Newmark cumulative displacement model was refined by incorporating lithological uncertainties via the Monte Carlo method. Comparative analysis of coseismic geohazards with and without considering cultivated land suggests that, in loess-covered areas with cultivation activities, the consideration of the disturbed characteristics of soils provides a more accurate probabilistic risk assessment of seismic geohazards. Human cultivation and irrigation activities affect the physical properties of surface soil, the terraced fields around earthquake prone areas have a risk of earthquake-induced geological hazards. This study may offer valuable insights for hazard prevention and mitigation in high fortification intensity loess covered areas.