Impact of urban form on carbon emissions of residents in counties: evidence from Yangtze River Delta, China

Urban form is a key factor affecting carbon emissions. Accurately estimating the impact of urban form on the carbon emissions of residents (CER) is an important prerequisite for China to adopt effective low-carbon spatial planning strategies and respond to climate change. However, counties mainly account for China’s energy consumption, and the relationship between their urban form and the CER remains unclear, limiting their low-carbon development. Therefore, in this study, the PLS-SEM model and data from 90 counties in the Yangtze River Delta are used to determine the extent and ways that urban form affects the CER. The model considers the impact of both geometric-aspect urban form factors (urban scale, compactness, spatial structure, and urban shape) and built environment-aspect urban form factors (public service facilities, urban greening, road traffic, public transportation, and urban energy infrastructure) on the CER. The results indicate that urban form factors related to the built environment (public service facilities, urban greening, road systems, and municipal infrastructure) have a direct impact on the CER. Geometric-aspect urban form factors (size, compactness, spatial structure, and shape) not only directly affect the CER but also indirectly affect the CER by altering built environment-aspect urban form factors. This study identifies the complex relationship between urban form and the CER, facilitating the coordinated integration of multiple elements and providing a basis for the formulation of low-carbon spatial planning strategies for counties.