Ground subsidence prediction with high precision: a novel spatiotemporal prediction model with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar technology

As the extraction of mineral resources intensifies, ground subsidence in mining areas has escalated, posing substantial challenges to sustainable development and operational safety. This subsidence, resulting directly from mining activities, significantly compromises the safety of nearby residents by damaging residential structures and infrastructure. Thus, developing precise and dependable methods for predicting ground subsidence is crucial. This study introduces an innovative Cabs-Unet model, which enhances the U-Net architecture by integrating a Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM) and Depthwise Separable Convolutions (DSC). This model aims to predict the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series. Employing Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS InSAR) technology, we gathered and validated data on ground subsidence at the Pengzhuang coal mine from May 2017 to November 2021, covering 130 scenes, with its accuracy corroborated by levelling survey results. An empirical evaluation of the Cabs-Unet model in two distinct subsidence zones demonstrated superior performance over conventional methods like Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) and Predictive Recurrent Neural Network (PredRNN), with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of 1.44 and 1.70, respectively. These findings highlight the model's efficacy in accurately predicting spatiotemporal InSAR ground subsidence. Further predictive analysis using InSAR data indicated an expected increase in subsidence, projecting cumulative declines of -457 mm in Area A and -1278 mm in Area B by 17 July 2022. Our model proves effective in assessing subsidence, promptly detecting potential risks and facilitating the rapid implementation of risk mitigation strategies.