PROBABILISTIC STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF SHIP HULL LONGITUDINAL STRENGTH.

Existing probabilistic structural design methods are reviewed, their applicability to ship hull structural design considered and the most promising probabilistic analysis techniques are identified. The current state of knowledge concerning structural modes of failure and load distribution is considered with respect to its impact on probabilistic structural analyses. Factors influencing strength, in terms of uncertainties in ship strength distribution, are reviewed. Sample calculations are performed for a number of ships using an approximate probabilistic method and yielding safety margins for each. A computer program is developed to perform this calculation for any ship subjected to any load or mode of failure.