Modeling of the water supply formation over European Russia under current conditions and estimating agroclimatic safety

By a probability of years with different water supply levels (from extremely low to excessive), by using smoothing 20-year periods for May-June, 1891 to 2002, the regularities are studied of the water supply formation in individual regions of European Russia. It is concluded that the current features of the water supply formation were also noted in the past, at different intervals. However, there are differences that are largely related to the intensity of the process. The most perceptible of these is the increasing probability of years with the sufficient water supply in the Saratov region and the excessive water supply in the Krasnodar territory. Methodology is considered and preliminary estimates are given concerning agroclimatic safety as to water supply in the region.