Evaluting short-term financial risk based on Delta model for hydropower plants

It is important for hydropower plants to assess the risk from the uncertainty of inflow and power price in the electricity market. Considering electricity price risk caused by bidding price and energy-uncertainty risk caused by season factors that influence the profit of hydropower plants and their pertinence, this paper puts forword variance-covariance parameter approach of value at risk(VaR) combining the concrete example to assess the short-term financial risk for income of the certain hydropower plants. The analysis shows that variance-covariance parameter approach can forecast precisely clearing price of bidding units the day after to lay a good foundation for decline return risk of hydropower plants.