Potentially Suitable Distribution Areas of Monochamus alternatus in China under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model

【Objective】To predict the latest potential suitable areas of Monochamus alternatus in China and its responses to climate change, so as to a theoretical basis for the risk analysis and the precise prevention and control of M. alternatus in China. 【Method】Based on the latest 650 occurrence data of M. alternatus and 20 environmental factors, the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS 10.7 software were used to predict the current and future potentially suitable areas of M. alternatus in China under different climatic conditions.【 Result】 The results of model optimization show that when the feature combination of LQHP (linear, quadratic, hinge, product) is selected and the regularization multiplication is set to 1.5, the model is the optimal one with the highest accuracy. The Jackknife shows that the monthly mean temperature difference, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, precipitation of warmest quarter and elevation were the dominant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of M. alternatus. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable areas of M. alternatus in China are mainly distributed in the areas south of the Yellow River. Under the future climate scenarios, there is a significant increase trend for the potentially suitable areas of M. alternatus, and the newly added areas are mainly concentrated in Shaanxi, Henan, Gansu, Shandong and Liaoning Province. 【Conclusion】The optimized MaxEnt model can accurately predict the distribution of M. alternatus in our country. Temperature and precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of M. alternatus. Climate change will cause the migration of suitable areas of M. alternatus. © 2024 Chinese Society of Forestry. All rights reserved.